2025 Economic Forecast Recap: Cutting Through the Noise with Dr. Christopher Thornberg

Lately, it feels like every headline is predicting something different—recession, recovery, or something in between. So what’s really going with the economic outlook, and what does it mean for your financial future?

That’s exactly why we host these economic forecasts—to cut through the noise and focus on facts that actually matter to you. These events are designed to help members see what’s happening in the economy right now, what’s likely ahead, and how to make smarter financial decisions  and build a stronger financial future.

As Nuvision CEO Roger Ballard said, “Our purpose at Nuvision is we help build lives for people—our members, our community, and our team.” Bringing in experts like Dr. Christopher Thornberg is part of that—giving members real answers and perspective they can actually use.

The narrative vs. the data—why it matters

During our recent October webinar, Dr. Christopher Thornberg opened with a simple point: the stories people tell about the economy usually don’t line up with the facts. “It’s narratives that drive decisions, but it’s realities that drive outcome,” he said during the webinar. That gap is where most people get thrown off—bombarded with headlines and social posts that make everything sound worse than it is, even when the data may say otherwise.

He reminded attendees that this isn’t new: “It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble -- it’s what we know that ain’t so.” His goal was to get people to look past the headlines and see what the numbers are actually saying.

For Thornberg, the message was clear—don’t build your outlook on fear or noise; build it on what’s real.

Why it matters to our members

After showing how public perception often doesn’t match what’s really happening, Thornberg brought the conversation back to what that means for people making everyday financial choices.

During the webinar’s Q&A, Nuvision CEO Roger Ballard pressed Thornberg on the issues that matter most—interest rates, housing, and what 2026 might look like. It turned a big-picture discussion into real takeaways for families, homeowners, and small business owners trying to plan their next move.

What Dr. Thornberg said—and why it matters

The economy right now

Thornberg didn’t sugarcoat it: “Listen, the economy in this particular year has slowed, (but) it has not stopped, and it is absolutely not contracting.” That distinction is central. We’re in a cool-down—not a collapse.” He walked our attendees through data showing that, despite softer growth, household finances are holding up: defaults, bankruptcies, and credit delinquencies remain near historic lows. In fact, inflation has settled into a 2–3 percent zone—still above the old “ideal,” but far from runaway.

He emphasized that the narrative of “the sky is falling” tends to obscure these facts. The real question isn’t if something will go wrong, but when, where, and how badly.

What’s actually risky

Thornberg didn’t deny there are risks—he just said most people are looking in the wrong place. He noted that “it is a scary situation we’re in, but it’s not households. Households are doing fine. It’s not housing. Housing is doing fine. It’s not the private sector, it’s the public sector.”

He explained that the real pressure isn’t coming from families or businesses—it’s coming from Washington. Rising federal deficits and growing interest payments are what keep him up at night. If something cracks, it won’t start with consumers or the housing market; it’ll start with the government’s books.

Rates and mortgages

When it comes to interest rates, Thornberg told members, “You may find that your best bet, your best investment over the next 10 years is a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, even at 5%  or 6%,” he said. His message was aimed squarely at those waiting for rates to crash back to the levels seen during the pandemic. That, he explained, just isn’t in the cards.

He expects some modest cuts ahead, but not the kind of dramatic drop many are holding out for. In his view, trying to time the bottom is a losing game. If you can lock in a fixed rate that fits your budget and long-term plans, that’s the smarter move. Waiting for “perfect timing,” he said, often costs people more in missed opportunity than they ever save in interest.

Tariffs and prices

With all the talk about trade wars and rising import costs, Thornberg offered a different take. “If you're gonna worry, worry about USMCA[WM2]  next year. Right now, tariffs really haven’t had any impact,” he said.

He explained that the price increases people are feeling aren’t coming from goods shipped across borders—they’re coming from services like insurance, travel, and healthcare. He also cautioned against headlines claiming tariffs are to blame for inflation. For now, the data doesn’t back that up.

Looking ahead to 2026

Looking ahead, Thornberg struck a cautiously optimistic tone:

“There’s no reason in the world to think the economy’s going to do anything but continue to grow” into 2026—unless a real shock hits.

He sees momentum carrying us forward, unless there’s a macro break. And he believes the first signs of trouble won’t emerge from Main Street—they’ll emerge from Washington: policy missteps, debt defaults, or a sudden pullback in capital inflows. He urged listeners to keep their gaze on the federal balance sheet, not housing starts.

Key takeaways

• The economy has cooled, not cracked; consumer finances remain broadly healthy.
• The biggest structural risk sits with federal deficits and potential interest-expense shocks.
• Expect modest additional rate cuts, but don’t plan around a return to ultra-low rates.
• Housing is constrained by supply; “waiting for a crash” is not a strategy supported by current data.
• Current tariffs have had limited impact on overall inflation; watch the USMCA renewal in 2026.
• If capital inflows slow and foreign money pulls back, watch the dollar and long-term interest rates—they’ll be the first to show stress.

If there’s one thing to take away from this forecast, it’s that the economy isn’t out of your control—it’s something you can navigate when you have the right information. That’s what Nuvision’s here for: helping members cut through the noise, make smart moves, and keep moving forward with confidence—no matter what the headlines say.

Watch the full conversation and hear Dr. Thornberg’s complete economic forecast at nuvisionfederal.com/2025-economic-forecast-webinar-series