The housing market is stepping into the slowdown season, and every data source this month reflects the same theme: things are cooling, but not collapsing. Easing mortgage rates gave buyers a brief window of relief, but affordability is still tight, and most markets are drifting sideways. Inventory is rising in some markets, falling in others, and price trends are mixed depending on where you look.

Every month, we pull together the latest numbers from the leading housing experts so you can see what’s really happening in today’s market. There’s a lot of noise out there, and our goal is to break it down in a simple, straightforward way that helps you make better decisions. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just staying informed, this report gives you a clear look at the trends that matter.

Steven Thomas – Holiday Market Sets In

Every year around this time, the market shifts from the more active Autumn Market into what Steven Thomas calls the “Holiday Market.” It’s the slowest stretch of the year, running from the week before Thanksgiving through early January. Both supply and demand reliably drop, as people shift their focus to the holidays, travel, family gatherings, and year-end obligations. Even though activity slows, the Expected Market Time tends to stay steady because buyers and sellers leave the market at roughly the same pace.

Thomas notes how fast the season flips. Halloween decorations barely come down before homes start going dark for the holidays, Starbucks rolls out red cups, and people turn their attention to shopping and events. That distraction alone is enough to push both new listings and buyer activity lower for the rest of the year.

Orange County, CA Snapshot

Orange County continues its three-year trend: more homeowners are listing, but demand hasn’t changed much. The result is a bigger pool of homes that sit on the market longer than they would have a few years ago. Inventory peaked at 5,071 homes at the end of July and has already fallen 19% to 4,103 as of now. Historically, the county’s Holiday Market drops inventory by roughly 28–32%, and Thomas expects a similar slide this year. Even with these declines, there are still fewer homes available than before the pandemic, which keeps the market from tipping sharply in favor of buyers.

Zillow – Affordability Hits a Three-Year High

Zillow reports something rare for this time of year: activity actually picked up in October. A drop in mortgage rates—to an average of 6.25%, the lowest in more than a year—gave both buyers and sellers a short affordability window. New listings and pending sales both jumped 5% year-over-year, something almost unheard of in the fall.

Improved affordability is the main driver. With slightly lower rates and rising household incomes, the share of income needed for a typical mortgage dropped to 32.9%, the lowest since 2022. It’s still above the 30% “burden” threshold, but better than anything buyers have seen in years. Total inventory has risen 12.8% compared to last year and now sits 17% below pre-pandemic averages—still a shortage, but the smallest one since early 2020.

Zillow’s metro-level data shows big splits. Values are rising in some Midwest and Northeast cities, while the South and West are seeing clear declines. Austin, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, and Dallas all posted sizeable annual drops, while Cleveland, Hartford, and Milwaukee led with gains. More markets are shifting toward buyers; 19 major metros now favor them, up from nine a year ago.

A deeper look into Zillow’s data shows: 53% of U.S. homes have lost value over the past year, the largest share since the post-recession era in 2012. The average drop from peak valuation is 9.7%, which Zillow describes as a “normalization, not a crash.” Despite price declines in many regions, very few homeowners are underwater—equity levels remain historically high because of the massive run-up in prices from 2020–2023.

Redfin – A Market Stuck in Neutral

Redfin describes the U.S. housing market as “stuck.” Sales, prices, inventory, and pending activity barely budged in October. The median sale price rose just 1.4% year- over-year to $440,523, a far cry from the wild swings seen over the past five years. Existing home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.24 million, basically unchanged from the last two months.

One of the biggest signs of a softer market: buyers are negotiating again. The typical home sold for 1.5% below its final list price—the biggest October discount Redfin has seen since 2019. About 24.9% of homes still sold above list, but that’s well below last year and reflects cooling competition. Homes also sat longer, spending 51 days on the market, the slowest October since 2016.

Redfin estimates there are 500,000 more sellers than buyers in the market right now, giving buyers a bit more leverage. But that doesn’t mean a flood of sales is coming. High prices and economic uncertainty are still holding back many would-be home buyers, and sellers are often listing only because of major life events—job relocations, divorce, or necessity.

National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) – Early Signs of a 2026 Rebound

NAR’s new forecast shifts the conversation into the future. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects 2026 to bring a genuine rebound, predicting a 14% jump in home sales after a mostly stagnant 2025. New home sales are expected to climb as well.

Prices are projected to keep rising, not falling. Yun is calling for 4% appreciation in 2026, supported by strong job growth and persistent undersupply. Mortgage rates—currently around 6.24%—are expected to drift slightly lower next year but not dramatically. Yun warns that buyers shouldn’t expect a return to 3% rates; even getting close to 6% could unlock a wave of pent-up demand.

NAR also highlighted growing inequality in the market. First-time buyers are at a historic low (21% of purchasers) and much older than in the past, with a median age of 40. Meanwhile, repeat buyers—often baby boomers—continue to dominate, many of them using cash or tapping existing home equity.

Seasonal slowing is also bringing back price reductions. Homes that sit on the market longer are seeing steeper cuts, with Multiple Listing Service data showing average reductions ranging from 4.9% in the first two weeks to 13.8% for homes listed more than four months.

5 Key Takeaways

1. The market is entering its slowest stretch of the year.

Steven Thomas says the Holiday Market (mid-November through early January) brings a predictable drop in both supply and demand as people shift focus to holiday travel, shopping, and family events. Inventory typically falls around 30% during this period.

2. A brief dip in mortgage rates sparked surprise activity.

Zillow reports that a drop to 6.25%—the lowest average rate in over a year—created the strongest October in three years for new listings and pending sales, both up 5% year over year.

3. Price trends are mixed, with many regions cooling.

Zillow data shows 53% of U.S. homes lost value over the past year, the biggest share since 2012. The average drop from peak valuation is 9.7%, with the South and West seeing the sharpest declines while parts of the Midwest and Northeast still show gains.

4. Buyers hold more leverage in today’s market.

Redfin reports the typical home sold for 1.5% below its final list price—the biggest October discount since 2019. Homes are taking 51 days on average to sell, and Redfin estimates there are 500,000 more sellers than buyers in the market.

5. NAR sees 2026 as the real rebound year.

While 2025 is flat, Lawrence Yun projects a 14% jump in home sales next year and a 4% price gain for 2026. Mortgage rates are expected to ease modestly toward 6%, enough to unlock pent-up demand but nowhere near pre-pandemic lows.

What it all means for our Members

This month’s data all points to the same story: a market drifting sideways into the holidays, not crashing, but not accelerating either. Lower mortgage rates gave buyers a small window of relief, and inventory continues to crawl back toward more normal levels. At the same time, more than half of U.S. homes are seeing slight value losses, and more markets are tipping toward buyers.

For sellers, pricing is becoming more important again. For buyers, patience may finally be paying off—especially those who can secure the lower rates now appearing. And looking ahead, most economists expect 2026 to be the next year of real growth.

We share these updates because staying informed helps you stay prepared. The housing market moves fast, and our members count on us to keep an eye on what’s changing and what might be coming next.