October 2025 Nuvision Monthly Housing Report

The housing market continues to cool, but not collapse. Rents are easing, builders are catching up, and buyers are taking more time to make decisions. Sellers are adjusting to a market where price—and patience—matter again. Mortgage rates remain steady in the 6% range, affordability is slowly improving, and despite all the noise about the economy, data shows stability underneath it all.

Here’s what the latest reports from Zillow, Redfin, the National Association of Realtors, and Steven Thomas say about current market conditions, along with insights from economist Dr. Chris Thornberg from Nuvision’s recent Economic Forecast Webinar.

Chris Thornberg: Supply, Demand, and the Bigger Picture

Economist Dr. Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics told members during Nuvision’s recent Economic Forecast Webinar that the housing market is cooling but stable—largely because the broader economy hasn’t cracked. He noted that demand has slowed due to higher rates and affordability challenges, but there’s no fundamental collapse in sight. Household balance sheets remain solid, and most homeowners are still sitting on record equity and low-rate mortgages.

Thornberg cautioned against waiting for a “crash” that isn’t supported by the data. The real constraint continues to be supply. Decades of underbuilding, local zoning barriers, and slow permitting mean even modest demand keeps prices elevated. While construction has picked up, especially in the rental sector, it’s still not enough to close the gap.

Looking ahead, Thornberg said the key risks to housing are macroeconomic—rising federal deficits, the cost of servicing debt, and the possibility of capital inflows slowing. If the government struggles to control spending and foreign money starts pulling back, we could see long-term rates pushing higher again, making mortgages more expensive. For now, he sees a soft-landing scenario, with prices steady and modest growth ahead, rather than a collapse.

Watch the full 2025 Economic Forecast Webinar replay here.

Steven Thomas: Pricing Still the Key to Selling in Today’s Market

Steven Thomas of Reports on Housing said: “It all boils down to price.” His latest report compared overpriced homes to fruit at a farmers market—appealing when fresh, but harder to sell after sitting too long. Sellers who price too high at the start end up making cuts later, taking longer to sell, and often earning less than if they had priced right from day one.

Thomas noted that this pattern has been consistent all year. Well-priced homes are still moving, while those chasing peak prices continue to linger. The biggest drag on the market right now is unrealistic expectations. His message to sellers: treat your home like a perishable product—price it fairly when it’s new to the market, and you’ll get stronger offers and better results.

Orange County Snapshot

Thomas’s data shows that two-thirds of all closed sales in Orange County, California last month sold without a price reduction, and those homes typically closed within 16 days at 98.4% of the final list price—proof that accurate pricing pays off. By contrast, homes that reduced their asking price by 1–4% took roughly 51 days to sell and averaged 96.4% of the final list price, while those that dropped 5% or more lingered about 75 days and closed at 95.7% of the final list price.

2025 Housing Summit in Alaska: Building Toward a Brighter Future

At the 2025 Housing Summit in Anchorage, sponsored by Nuvision, industry leaders and economists took a hard look at Alaska’s housing challenges—and the path forward. Robert Dietz, Ph.D., chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, told attendees that Alaska’s high material and labor costs continue to strain affordability. Since 2020, home prices in Anchorage have climbed 42%, while construction costs, insurance premiums, and materials like transformers and gypsum have surged even higher. Regulatory costs now add roughly $94,000 to the price of a new home, putting additional pressure on builders and buyers alike.

Still, there are reasons for optimism. Lumber prices recently fell to a twelve-month low, and the NAHB expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates later this year—steps that could make homeownership more accessible by 2027. The Anchorage Home Builders Association is also tackling Alaska’s skilled-labor shortage through the AK Hiring Trades Expo, connecting employers with new workers and highlighting opportunities in residential construction. The message from this year’s summit was clear: with targeted reforms, a stronger workforce, and lower financing costs ahead, Alaska’s housing market can build toward stability and growth.

Zillow: Builders Catch Up, Mortgage Rates Hold Firm

Zillow reports that builders are finally catching up to pandemic-era demand. The surge in multifamily construction that began in 2023 continued through last year, with more new units completed in 2024 than in any year since 1974. That growth has helped rebalance supply in some of the nation’s hottest markets—particularly across the South and Sunbelt—where developers were able to move quickly due to fewer building restrictions.

The added supply is creating new pockets of affordability, especially in areas that saw the sharpest price jumps over the last few years. A cooler labor market is also contributing to steadier conditions, giving buyers and builders alike a little breathing room.

On the mortgage front, Zillow notes that rates have moved only slightly lower in recent weeks, staying within a narrow range due in part to the ongoing government data blackout. While softer economic momentum could allow rates to ease modestly into 2026, Zillow expects the 30-year fixed rate to remain in the 6%–7% range for the foreseeable future. That stability should help buyers plan with more confidence, even if affordability remains tight in some metros.

Redfin: Sellers Testing the Market as Buyers Hold Back

Redfin reports that new listings are on the rise for the first time in months, up 4.1% year over year in mid-October. Lower mortgage rates—around 6.3%—have encouraged some homeowners to finally list, but many buyers are still hesitant. The median home-sale price is up 1.9% from last year at this time, keeping affordability tight. Homes are also taking longer to sell, averaging 48 days on the market.

Pending sales are down 1.2% year over year, the biggest decline in five months.

Redfin also notes that 29% of home purchases nationwide are being made in cash—essentially flat from last year but well below the 35% peak during the height of the rate surge. The typical down payment reached a record $70,000 in August, showing that the market remains dominated by more affluent buyers. For first-time buyers, the good news is that competition has cooled, creating space to negotiate rather than compete against all-cash offers.

National Association of Realtors: Sales Flat but Inventory Slowly Improving

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing-home sales slipped 0.2% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million units. The Midwest and West saw modest month-over-month gains, while the Northeast and South posted slight declines. Compared to last year, sales are up 1.8%, and the median home price climbed 2% to $422,600—the 26th straight month of annual price increases.

Inventory remains tight but is improving. There were 1.53 million homes on the market in August, up nearly 12% from a year earlier, representing a 4.6-month supply. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said more inventory combined with easing mortgage rates should give the market a small lift in the coming months. Homes are taking longer to sell—31 days on average—and first-time buyers made up 28% of sales.

Yun added that record-high homeowner equity and a strong stock market could help drive move-up buyers in higher price ranges, while affordable inventory continues to lag. The Midwest remains the best-performing region, thanks to its more attainable home prices.

Key Takeaways

• Rent affordability is at its best level in four years, with landlords offering record concessions.
• Builders are finally catching up with demand, especially in the South and Sunbelt.
• Existing-home sales are flat, but inventory is up nearly 12% from last year.
• Buyers are cautious, but cash purchases remain near 30% of the market.
• Homes are taking longer to sell, and correct pricing is more critical than ever.
• Thornberg says there’s no housing “crash” coming—just slower growth.
• Broader economic risks like government debt and interest-rate volatility could shape 2026.
  

Why Nuvision Shares These Reports

Understanding what’s happening in housing helps our members make smart moves—whether that’s buying their first home, refinancing, or investing for the future. We share these monthly updates to give you real data and practical insights you can use, not just headlines.

To watch the full Economic Forecast Webinar replay, visit nuvisionfederal.com/2025-economic-forecast-webinar-series.