Every day, headlines about inflation, interest rates, and trade wars flood our newsfeeds, each with potential impacts on our financial lives. At Nuvision Credit Union, we believe understanding these issues is essential to helping our members secure the futures they're working so hard to build. That's exactly why we host events like our 2025 Economic Forecast Webinar—breaking down complex economic news into clear insights you can use right away.

These topics were front and center during  the event, hosted by Nuvision CEO Roger Ballard and featuring insights from renowned economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics. From inflation and interest rates, to trade policies and housing market shifts, our members' concerns were front and center.

Inflation: Is the worst behind us?

One topic members were particularly concerned about was inflation, especially after the stress of the past few years. Dr. Thornberg spoke directly to those worries, offering some reassuring insights: "We’re clearly seeing inflation coming down. Prices are becoming more stable, and while things aren't exactly back to normal, they're certainly better than they were." He explained that pandemic-driven stimulus had dramatically impacted prices, but now your dollars are stretching further. Still, Dr. Thornberg urged caution, pointing out that factors like ongoing trade tensions could still cause fluctuations.

Yet he also reminded members to stay realistic: "Prices might not go back to where they were pre-pandemic anytime soon. We’re still dealing with adjustments from supply-chain disruptions and global market shifts." His advice to Nuvision members? Keep budgeting wisely and watch for signs of stability before making major financial commitments.

Interest Rates: What's next for your mortgage and loans?

Interest rates are another hot topic for many Nuvision members. The Federal Reserve has paused some of its recent rate hikes, easing pressure on borrowers. Dr. Thornberg broke it down this way, "Interest rates have settled somewhat, but the future remains uncertain. If you're considering big financial moves like buying a home or car, it might be wise to act sooner rather than later—but always within your means." His recommendation is clear: "Avoid taking on loans that strain your budget."

Expanding on this point, Dr. Thornberg highlighted that we shouldn't expect drastic rate cuts in the near future, explaining, "The Federal Reserve is still monitoring inflation closely. Stability is their priority, so interest rates may remain elevated for some time." Therefore, planning ahead and being prudent about borrowing is essential right now.

Trade Wars and Tariffs: Will everyday goods get pricier?

Another issue on many members' minds is how trade policies and tariffs might affect daily expenses. With ongoing changes in international trade agreements, there's concern about rising prices for everyday goods. Dr. Thornberg addressed these worries directly, explaining what these changes might mean for your household budget.

"We will see some ups and downs, particularly in specific sectors like automotive and housing materials. Overall, though, the effects on most consumer goods should be moderate." Still, he emphasized the importance of staying informed, noting, "Volatility is part of the landscape now, so pay attention to how trade policy unfolds to keep your budget in check."

He also addressed questions about potential long-term impacts, adding, "While everyday items may not spike dramatically, certain imported goods could become less predictable in price. It’s worth being mindful about purchases tied directly to international trade, especially if you're budgeting for major expenses like home renovations or new vehicles."

Housing Market: What's really going on?

Housing continues to be a big challenge. Despite rising interest rates, prices keep climbing due to limited housing inventory. "We have a supply problem, plain and simple," Dr. Thornberg pointed out. He reassured potential homebuyers, "While affordability feels strained, it's not historically unprecedented." His key message for prospective buyers: "Don’t panic or rush decisions. Buy only if it makes sense for your financial situation."

Dr. Thornberg further elaborated on this, stressing the importance of patience: "Inventory shortages aren't going away overnight. Prices could continue to rise, but not at the rapid pace we've seen recently. Keep an eye on local market conditions, remain patient, and you'll find opportunities that align with your long-term financial goals."

For a deeper dive into current housing trends, check out Nuvision's March 2025 Housing Report Update here.

Economic Narratives vs. Reality: Staying informed

Every day we're bombarded with alarming news and headlines that can make it hard to know what's really happening with the economy. Dr. Thornberg tackled this issue head-on, emphasizing the importance of separating negative narratives from actual economic indicators.

As he put it, "The biggest problem with the economy right now is the stories we tell ourselves about it. Negative headlines often overshadow real data showing stable growth and strong household finances." He encouraged Nuvision members to rely on facts rather than fears, saying, "Focus on data and evidence rather than scary headlines. That’s how you make wise financial decisions."

Key takeaways from the webinar include:

• Strong Consumer Spending: Economic growth remains robust at nearly 3%, driven by strong consumer spending on experiences and durable goods.
• Healthy Labor Market: Unemployment is low, wages are rising, but the constrained labor force emphasizes the importance of immigration for future economic growth.
• Persistent Housing Challenges: Despite higher interest rates, limited housing supply continues to drive prices upward, affecting overall affordability.
• Government Debt Concerns: The high federal deficit (6% of GDP) and national debt exceeding 100% of GDP pose significant long-term economic risks.
• Asset Bubble Risks: Inflated asset prices, particularly in stocks and cryptocurrencies, remain a threat, potentially causing economic disruption if markets correct.
• Trade and Immigration Policies: Restrictive policies may disrupt supply chains, increase consumer prices, and hinder labor market expansion.
• Narrative vs. Reality: Thornberg stressed the disconnect between negative economic narratives and positive actual economic indicators, emphasizing informed financial decision-making.

Missed the live webinar?

Don’t worry—you can watch the full replay of the event here.

At Nuvision, we're committed to providing clear, helpful insights to guide your financial decisions. Your success matters to us, and we're here to support you every step of the way.