Economic Narratives vs. Reality: Why Facts Matter More Than Headlines

Mar 28, 2025, 14:31 PM by Nuvision 
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Feel like you're constantly being told the economy is in trouble and headed for a fall? You're not alone. Every day, we’re hit with headlines about inflation, rising costs, interest rates, layoffs, or global instability. It can make it hard to know what’s actually happening—and even harder to make smart decisions with your money.

But during Nuvision Credit Union’s recent 2025 Economic Forecast Webinar, economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg encouraged members to take a step back and look at the real data before jumping to conclusions.

The Biggest Problem with the Economy…

"The biggest problem with the economy right now is the stories we tell ourselves about it," Dr. Thornberg said. "Negative headlines often overshadow real data showing stable growth and strong household finances."

He pointed out that despite all the talk of downturns, what we’re seeing in the data tells a different story. "Consumers are fine. They’re spending like crazy. That doesn’t happen in a recession. They’re going to the movies, they're traveling, they're eating out," he explained. In other words, the way people are actually living -- and spending -- doesn't match the doom-and-gloom narrative.

Even with near-record low unemployment and a strong job market, fear seems to be dominating the conversation. "We have near record low unemployment and people are still talking about a downturn. There’s a mismatch between reality and the narrative," he said.

The Sky is Falling… or is it?

One of the biggest dangers of this disconnect is how it can influence personal decisions. If you believe the sky is falling, you might hold off on opportunities that would actually be smart moves for your future. That’s why Dr. Thornberg advised members to stay grounded in facts: "Focus on the data and not the drama. It’s the only way to make smart financial choices."

He even called out what some are now referring to as a "vibecession" – when people feel like the economy is bad even when the numbers say otherwise. "This whole idea of a ‘vibecession’—where people feel like the economy’s bad, even when it isn’t—that’s dangerous. Feelings don’t pay your mortgage; facts do."

It’s easy to get swept up in the latest scary headline, but it’s important to ask yourself: is this fear backed up by real data? Or, is it just another story that sounds worse than the reality?

As Dr. Thornberg reminded us throughout the webinar, the economy is more stable than we think. Growth is happening. Consumers are still spending. And most households are in better shape than the news would have us believe.

The takeaway? Stay informed, but stay skeptical. Look at the facts. Tune out the panic. Because when it comes to your financial decisions, the smartest moves are the ones based on reality—not headlines.

Have thoughts on what Dr. Thornberg shared during the webinar? We’d love to hear from you. Catch the replay of the 2025 Economic Forecast Webinar and join the conversation:

We’d love to hear your take—share your thoughts in the comments.